WHICH OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES WILL WIN IN THE NORTHERN REGION IN THIS UPCOMING ELECTION?

Source: AlHassan - To answer this, let's make good use of statistical data from the past and make an inference by projecting into the future. 
The data below shows in percentage terms, the voting trend between the NDC and the NPP in the Northern region.

1999 2000 2000 R

NDC 33.01% NPP 29.57% NPP 48.55%
NPP 61.13% NDC 50.76% NDC 51.45%

2004 2008 2008 R

NPP 34.72% NPP 37.79% NPP 38.39%
NDC 57.83% NDC 57.37% NDC 61.61%

2012 ***2016 Predicted 

NPP 39.11% NPP 43.50%
NDC 58.28% NDC 52.50%

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From 1996 to 2000, both NPP and NDC recorded a reduction in percentage terms in the net votes garnered. However, the NPP increased the votes with a bigger margin in the run off due to issues like :Late Ali mahama's influence, Alliance by minor political parties, change mood activated by northerners and also other miscellaneous factors were accounted for and quantified. The NDC on the other hand, recorded a lower percentage increment because of the alliance of minor parties with the NPP, change agenda against the NDC and other miscellaneous factors as well.

In 2004, NPP decreased their votes due to pertinent reasons like : the murder of the Great Overlord of Dagbon, Naa Yakubu, as falsely propagated by the opposition NDC, false and bigotry statements made against Ali mahama by the NDC and other miscellaneous factors. The NDC on the other hand, increased their votes because of Northern-running mate and of course the frivolous claim that they would find the perpetrators of the the King's murder.

In 2008, though NPP increased their votes, it was marginal because the impact made by Bawumia was minimal and also Ali mahama losing at the NPP Congress at legon. The fertilizer subsidy and other social interventions that benefited northerners as well as the issue of retain NPP to prosecute the perpetrators of the murder of the late Naa Yakubu however, accounted for the marginal increment. The NDC on the other hand matched the NPP with a marginal increment because some NDC guys voted NPP to assist bring the perpetrators to face the law.

In the runoff, The NDC increased their votes because, then prof Mills made northerners understand that the the Overlord of Dagbon( Yaa Naa Yakubu II) was killed by NPP and hence northerners should vote NDC and they would prosecute the perpetrators. With all these reasons, miscellaneous factors can't be left out.

In 2012, NDC won with a decreasing percentage of votes. The winning could be attributed to vigorous campaign by John Mahama and also he, John, campaigning that they should vote for him since he is one of them. The better Ghana promise can't be left out. The NPP on the other hand increased their votes due to campaigns made by the regional executives and some personalities within the NPP. Bawumia doing politics and not academics also contributed to the vote increment. The free SHS policy by NPP assisted them in garnering the votes they had. Once again, other miscellaneous factors like floating voters and campaign messages attracted some diplomats.

In conclusion, keeping the above data in perspective, it is save to conclude that the NPP will increase, in percentage wise, its performance in the Northern Region in this year's election. The NPP stands the chance of getting more votes because Bawumia is making a huge and tremendous impact in the northern region. He has debunked some claims by NDC and has also made Islamic religion his priority. Muslims dominate in the northern region and hence Muslim brotherly assistance can't be left out. Also, Nana has proven that the false allegations that he is violent is not true and that he stands for development with one constituency 1 million policy can't be left out. This has projected the NPP votes increasing from 39.11% to 43.50%.

The NDC on the other , though will win, will experience a reduction in their votes due to lots of factors including inability of some NDC PCs to satisfy party members, dumsor, high school fees, high utility bills, scraping off trainees and nurses allowances, poor economic management and other miscellaneous factors. This will make NDC win but with a decreasing margin.

Northern region stands for peace before, during and after the December polls.

# Ghana first #
# peace first #
God bless you for reading and sharing.

#ALHASSAN ABDUL FATAWU #